December 22, 2025, Issue 17

The Apology Section

Sometimes life gets in the way of your best-laid plans. I was inspired to run a few miles yesterday in training for a 10K in May. Worn and tired, I felt writer’s block and kept putting off the creation of this letter. Now, I fully realize that you’ve all felt the void of not having Dadsadvice hit your inbox, so in the spirit of better late than never, here we go….

Santa is Showing Up

Maybe Santa also ran a 5K a couple of weeks ago, but like this author, he showed up in the stock markets last week. While the Dow was off 0.7% for the week, it had been the star of December up until then. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.5%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.1%.
Here is what I believe. Markets will drift a little higher through the next two weeks, which will be short weeks because of Christmas and New Years. I believe stocks that have been down may continue lower as people crystalize their losses to save taxes. Again, stock market losses can offset taxes as we have discussed. I believe January will open with a flurry of buying some of those beaten-down names. Some of our speculative stock picks have not performed well, and I would look to the new year before they recover. These include PTON and SNAP, which continue to meander lower or hold at low levels. I still believe in the stories around these companies, and have built full positions in each.

The (Almost) Incomprehensible Case of Crypto

Look, I know the basic story around Crypto currencies and the case for owning them. I simply don’t believe or fully understand what makes them worth anything. Before I dive in, full disclosure: We own ARKB, an ETF that mimics the price of Bitcoin in the portfolio. It represents about 2% of the overall portfolio, and stays there just so I don’t look too foolish if Bitcoin ever goes to $1M. Now….why is Bitcoin worth anything at all? I understand that there will be a finite amount. I understand that it will be an independent currency, not backed by countries. What I do not get is why is it $90,000 today, $120,000 a month or so ago. and $85,000 last week? Only a couple of answers come to mind. The first, which is obvious, is because someone is willing to pay that amount for a Bitcoin. We all think our houses, cars, or Rolexes are worth so much. However, the truth is they only worth what someone is willing to pay. Same with Bitcoin. Now, with houses there is a proven track record of rising value. What would make someone believe that the $90K they pay for a Bitcoin today will be worth $100K in a month, or 2 months, or a year? When we research companies, we can look at their performance, their management, demand for their product, profit margins, and a million other points of interest to gain clarity and build our opinion of which way the stock of that company will trade. And with a company, I can find 10 analysts that explore the data and say “Buy”, and 10 others that have looked at the same data and say “Sell”. What data, what backing is there around the idea that Bitcoin is going higher?
If I have any experts on the subject, please comment with your views on Crypto in general, and Bitcoin in particular. After all, we still hold it and want it to go higher!

NIKE

As you all know, Nike has been in the portfolio for about 3 months now. We liked the incoming CEO, we liked his plan of getting back into distribution through retail channels like Dick’s and Foot Locker (now one and the same), and we liked his thought of getting back into sports, especially running. We see the results, and though it takes a while to turn around a company as large as Nike, the results they posted last Thursday show marked improvement in a number of areas. First and foremost in my mind, profit was way ahead of expectations. Second, so were sales, with the North American market up markedly. They have also made progress in selling off old inventory. So why has the stock traded down about 15% since the results? One word…China. Sales in China were down way more than expected, and it is a large market. People are worried that ON and HOKA have gotten in and stolen share. I’m sure this is true, but to me this is an opportunity. Yes, management may have taken their eyes off China while juggling their issues on inventory, North America, and distributor partners. But I believe that the team will refocus on that market, and gain back share. With the shares trading near a 52 week low, and not likely to recover soon as people use their tax loss selling technique, I will wait and watch a bit at this level. I will surely add to the position at some point soon, for the reasons I have outlined. And one more reason: Mrs. Dadsadvice and I both recently purchased a pair if Vomero 18s. These are the most amazing running shoes I have ever owned, providing support, cushioning, and excellent response. They have definitely come back to Mike’s running roots. Now how is that for a shameless plug for a stock we own??

A Quick Thought for the Hometown Team

We have been living an hour northwest of Charlotte, NC for about seven and a half years. In that time the Carolina Panthers have been bad with gusts up to horrible. Yest here we are, with two games left in the regular season, and they sit in first place in their division. Now let’s keep in mind, this is a precarious perch. They play the might Seahawks of Seattle next week, and finish with a game in Tampa Bay against the second place Buccaneers. Still, it is kind of exciting to think they may be hosting a playoff game for the first time in almost a decade, and making the playoffs at all for the first time since 2017. Root for the home team!!

Thought of the Day

Here is the difference between the optimist and the pessimist: The optimist in me says it is December 22nd, and the days now start to get longer. We can start to think about spring, golf, and swimming pools. The pessimist in says dang, we are only six short months from the days beginning to get shorter!