March 8, 2026, Issue 24

Time off clears the head

I have had some queries as to Dad’s whereabouts these last three weeks. First of all, for those who have asked, thank you. I’m happy that you’ve missed this newsletter. Second, time away truly gives a person the chance to think more clearly about whatever it is that creates writer’s block. Although I truly have not figured it out just yet, I know the head is clear and ready for the craziness that is our world today. So without further ado, let’s dive in.

The World at War

With the full onslaught of war in Iran, which has quickly spread throughout the middle east, it seems that the world is not a very peaceful place. To recap, for those of us just going about our daily business: Russia/Ukraine moves into its fifth year, Civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar, Israel/Gaza has not yet been fully extinguished, Somalia, and of course the aforementioned Iran/Everybody conflict. We shouldn’t forget the violence of the cartels in Mexico that briefly turned a beautiful vacation spot like Puerto Vallarta into a war zone. What good comes out of all the violence? Certainly, hundreds of thousands of people have perished in the wars mentioned above. And it’s hard to know how the world comes out on the other side. For the middle east region, it is strange to see countries like UAE joining the USA and Israel against Iran. And while strange, it does provide hope that maybe one day Saudi Arabia and others will join the Abraham Accords and create a lasting peace once Iran is unable to sow conflict in the area both directly and through its many proxies.
Some wars are caused by ethnic violence (South Sudan), territorial disputes (Ukraine), or power struggles (Myanmar, Sudan). With Iran it seems that the patience that the USA has shown since 1979 has simply run dry. While this newsletter aims to stay out of politics, it is hard to argue that the Iranian regime has been a force for good since taking American hostages for 444 days 47 years ago. Perhaps this will be the time for change.
Whatever the outcomes, it certainly feels like a dangerous time regardless of where in the world we are. And that is definitely unfortunate.

The Time to Save is Always Now

By now we have all heard the mantras: Start saving young. Pay yourself first. Let compound interest work for you. On and on they go. Here is a real life example to graphically illustrate the point. Someone who invests $166 per month ($2,000 per year) from the age of 19 until 27, and then DOES NOT INVEST ANOTHER PENNY, and averages 10% return per year will have $1 million by the age of 65! Read that again please, because even now I find it incredible. To put an even finer point on it, look at this: Now you start the exact same savings regimen at the age of 27. You save the same $166 per month and CONTINUE TO DO SO until you turn 65. You make the same rate of return. When you turn 65, you have $800,000! In other words you have $200K more at 65 if you started at 19 and only save for 8 years versus starting at 27 and saving for 38 years.
How to do it? Saving $166 every month may not be easy as we enter years where earnings are entry level, and expenses are new and high. We have rent, food, maybe a car payment. The first years of adulting are never a walk in the park. So here are some strategies. Make sure that $166 goes directly from your paycheck into a savings vehicle. Hopefully you work at a company that provides a 401K or RRSP match. If that’s the case, you just lowered your burden to $83 per month as the company will add the other $83. If the money never hits your checking account, you will never feel like you’re losing it, or like you’d rather spend it on something else. Another good idea is to reward yourself each time that monthly money is saved. Make that the day you go out for dinner. Sure you just put $166 away for what seems like an eternity, but a nice meal out will ease the pain.

401K vs Roth, RRSP vs TFSA

Whether you live in Canada or the USA, there are similar plans to help you save money in a tax-advantaged system. Speaking very generally a 401K and an RRSP share many of the same traits. Your money goes in pre-tax and creates an immediate tax deduction. This means that the income you make over the course of a year gets reduced by the amount put into the plan. The money invested grows tax-free and is only taxed when withdrawn. You will likely take the funds out at a time when your earnings are lower in retirement, thereby paying less tax on those dollars. This plan is best when your earnings are higher and the tax deduction is more meaningful. In the same vein, a Roth IRA or 401K and a TFSA share basic traits. There is no immediate tax break since you are investing after-tax dollars. However, the money will grow tax-free in this plan as well, and will not be taxed upon withdrawal. As you can see, with taxes it’s always “pay me now or pay me later, but you will pay me”. That fact aside, both of these plans are useful. While the Roth/TFSA might make more sense when earnings and taxable income are lower, it may also be too easy to access those funds thereby blowing up the whole savings plan. Locked-in money will incentivize leaving it to grow in the RRSP/401K.

Is the Stock Market at War?

These last three weeks it seems as though the stock market is at war with itself. Tech stocks vs Cyclical stocks, Safe vs Risky, Old vs New. The tremors in the middle east have caused oil to spike, which in turn has helped energy companies. The threat of war has made gold look safe again. The threat of AI has made software look like a dying dinosaur. So where do we turn? In the first issue of this letter I advised to have a reason to buy stock in any company, and then occasionally check to make sure that reasoning is still sound. I’ve never been a fan of companies where market forces beyond the company’s control determine the value of their product. Oil is the perfect example. Of course, these firms have done very well these last couple of weeks. But the high price of oil transitory. The world prior to the invasion of Iran was awash in it. This will be the case when the war ends. If you’ve jumped in and made some profits, I applaud the move. In my opinion make sure to exit and treat it as a trade and not a long term investment. With all of this in mind, where do we turn? As usual, cash is king at the moment. The markets are volatile and will continue to be so for some time. Here is a look at some of the stocks we own and/or follow:

PLTR – War is generally good for Palantir as they count the Army, Navy, Special Ops, CIA, FBI, and the NSA among their customers. We got back in on Feb. 19, and currently sit on a 15% gain. As avid readers will remember we sold much too early our first foray into PLTR, and so we will let this ride.
JOBY, SNAP, PTON, SOUN – How did I lump a social media provider, an AI company, an electric flying taxi business, and an exercise equipment manufacturer all together? Glad you asked. These companies make up the speculative portion of our portfolio. The other thing they share in common is that they have been badly beat up over the last month or so, in some cases to half of what we originally paid. This made me go back to test the theories. So far, the only one of these that has moved to the potential sale rack is Soundhound. We initially had 575 shares at $4.94 and sold 130 of them at $21.12. This gave us back almost our initial investment and we let the balance run. They have doubled sales and are close to profitability in a growing field, providing AI voice recognition in cars, restaurants, and customer service areas. While they count major players like Hyundai, Chipotle, and Netflix as customers, there is a threat of rising competition. We hold for now.
Peloton implemented price increases on their monthly plans and equipment at the first of the year. While they have shed some of their subscribers, they still count about 2.7 million members paying them $50 per month. I would like to see them lower the equipment prices and gain more members, but even at this number the company is profitable, has room to grow, and may be an ideal takeover target. David Einhorn recently purchased a lot more shares, so we hold with an eye to averaging down.
Snapchat is in a very different business than Peloton to be sure, but the story is similar. Monthly users to SNAP+ continue to grow providing a reliable recurring revenue stream. The perplexity AI deal provides an additional $400 million of revenue this year, and they are reaching for profitability. Again, we hold with an eye to averaging down.
Joby Aviation’s stock has not been quite as beat up as the rest, and likely for good reason. they continue to inch closer to FAA approval for their electric air taxis, they signed a deal with Uber Air, and they are producing aircraft for various countries in the middle east. While the war in that region has put the shares on sale, Cathie Wood of ARK Funds purchased 1.1 million shares this past week. This too is on our radar for a potential purchase.
More to come on other stocks in our portfolio next issue.

Thought of the Day

In the midst of training to run a 10K in early May, I came with two somewhat relevant questions for you dear readers. Number one: why do we do this? I have maintained my gym schedule for the most part along with the running, and I can tell you that the soreness is real. For those of us that work out regularly, what continues to motivate? For me, it’s the desire to age well and enjoy my retirement some day. However, there is no doubt that I would love to sit on the couch and eat potato chips (kettle cooked, of course). Which leads to question two: What is your preferred snack? Sweet like chocolate or salty like chips?
Would love to hear from you, and I have missed you all.
Looking forward to your comments.