March 25, 2026, Issue 25

The World at War

Well, for a guy who wanted to win the Nobel Peace Prize….the world certainly looks like a not so peaceful place at the moment. The middle east is a mess between the full blown war in Iran, Hamas fully rearming and reorganizing in Gaza, and Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel on the daily. I imagine we will hear from the Houthis at any moment. Peace seems illusory at best, impossible at worst. Venezuela remains unsettled, as does Cuba. Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, all at various stages of conflict. Where do we turn? At this moment we have no good answers. We pray for our men and women in combat, we pray for these hostilities to end quickly, and we pray for leadership in the USA, Canada, and Europe to support not the good of their party’s faithful, but for the good of the vast majority who stand mostly silent and in the middle ground. My great fear is that the moderates will get swept up in one side or the other thereby shifting the balance of power and creating still more chaos and confusion.

The World at War and the Immediate Effects

I suppose the first place that we took notice of how fast we feel the effects of war is at the gas pump. While I hear the EV drivers chuckling smugly to themselves over in the corner, my heart goes out to those of us stubbornly addicted to their internal combustion engines. Here in our cozy little spot in North Carolina the price of a gallon of gas has gone from about $2.50 a month ago to today’s average of about $3.60 or a smooth 44% increase. The average tank of gas holds about 15 gallons. So a once a week filler will be getting squeezed by about $16.50 a week, or $66 a month. That’s nothing to sneeze at, especially for those who were already struggling. And the situation is worse depending on where you live. I was in California last week, and the prices topped the $6 per gallon mark. That is likely on par with what my peeps in Canada are paying. But that’s not the worst of it. The disrupted supply chains and rising prices of natural gas due to the conflict have raised fertilizer prices quickly and dramatically. We will all soon feel this at the grocery store as farmers will bear the brunt. Food prices had not yet retreated and now they risk rising further. Beyond that, any petroleum based products will be on the upswing. Think plastics, propylene, polyester, and almost anything else that requires oil or that gets trucked or freighted. Again, comparison shop, look for sales, and let’s keep hoping for a fast wrap-up to wars everywhere.

Experts??

How do the various markets react to war? Well, the short answer is not well at all. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently at a high of 50,500. Today’s close of 46,400 puts it 8% down over the last 3 weeks. The tech heavy Nasdaq was at a high of 24,000 in February. It is sitting at 21,900 for about a 9% decline. None of that is surprising. Investors like stability in geopolitics, prices, and other inputs. Right now the world is anything but stable, so the falling markets are not surprising. What actually is a bit of a mystery is why they have not fallen further over the last 3 weeks. I believe everyone is clinging to the idea of a quick end to the Iran conflict. I am not certain of that outcome as it seems Iran is undeterred.
Here is the other issue that I find way more than surprising. This one rises to the level of shock. The price of gold has fallen about 20% from its pre-war high. Experts will always tell you that in times of instability the price of gold goes up. Well now, come again experts?? The price of an ounce of gold went on an unprecedented run in 2024-2025 for no apparent reason. Again, experts will tell you that when stocks are flying, gold is grounded. Wrong again over the last 2 years. So now what? Some experts are predicting gold at $10,000 per ounce, and that now is the time to get in. Others see it stabilizing at this level or lower. Dadsadvice likes to invest in things we can touch, feel, or easily understand. What the price of a commodity will be tomorrow is just so hard to predict with any accuracy, so we tend to stay away.
Crypto is in the same boat as gold. With a capped supply of Bitcoin, it should be rocketing higher in times of turmoil. Yet here we are, stuck at around $70,000. No clue why, but someone like Michael Saylor CEO of Strategy, which continues to buy Bitcoin at unprecedented rates will tell you that $150,000 is where the coin will be at the end of 2026. Maybe, but I couldn’t tell you why. As I’ve said before in the vain of full disclosure, we have a stake in a Bitcoin ETF worth less than 2% of our overall portfolio.

Some Stocks

A couple of our most speculative holdings have fallen dramatically. SNAP and PTON have both recently touched all-time lows. In the case of PTON, I remain firmly bullish that good times are a hop, skip, and a jump away. Which, incidentally you can do with the new Peloton IQ training programs. The AI generated programs watch you and correct your form as you work out. The company also recently announced their line of heavy duty equipment that will be ready for large gyms everywhere. I can easily imagine an announcement of a contract with Planet Fitness that set the stock on fire. Planet has 3,000 locations across Canada and the USA. The equipment will put together the heavy duty Precor equipment that Peloton bought a couple of years ago with the technology that people love to use and follow along with. I am on the verge of adding to my position in PTON, and I will let you know when that happens.
Now SNAP is a different story. I am not quite as confident in this one. The positives are still the deal with Perplexity, which will bring in $400M in revenue this year, and the increase in paid members of SNAP+. The big negative here is management, or should I say mismanagement? They continue to use shares as cash, and pay for executives. The strategy seems a little unclear, and this is most definitely a wait and see situation.
We bought some shares of PLTR just before the war began. Sometimes our timing is great. Palantir is the preferred supplier of software and AI to the military of both the USA and Israel. They continue to make inroads into businesses, and although we are up about 16% in a short time span, we may consider adding to the position on any pullback or weakness in the share price.

Thought of the Day

The struggle you are in today is developing the strength you will need tomorrow. Stay consistent in your efforts, and remember that small, positive steps forward will lead to significant achievements. Just showing up is a great start. Or as a famous commencement speaker said, make your bed. It will start you off with a sense of accomplishment and the day will get better from there. Keep on striving people!

Always looking forward to your comments.