November 9, 2025, Issue 11

For The People?

As we sit here on day 40 of a government shutdown (the longest in history), I am reminded of Abraham Lincoln and the Gettysburg Address. Is this what he meant by government of the people, by the people, for the people? To me this just looks like kids fighting on the playground. Whether it’s Schumer vs Trump, Schumer vs his own party (I see you AOC), or Trump vs Everybody, I only see one thing. The people that government is meant to serve are getting the short end of the stick. 43 million people in the USA depend on SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program). Those benefits have stopped. I cannot imagine the horrors of living with food insecurity even with SNAP benefits. How do we allow people to be without food due to political infighting? In the meantime, thousands of flights are being canceled daily, and that number will continue to grow as Air Traffic Controllers and TSA officers call out of work. Why? Because they are not getting paid.
In the meantime, our elected officials only seem able to blame one another, and stubbornly dig their heels in with no regard for their constituents. The most annoying part? These politicians continue to receive their paychecks.We will see how this plays out as the public’s anger grows more fierce by the moment.
Have you been impacted by this shutdown? Are you worried about travel plans? Let us know in the comments or by replying to this email.

The Week That Was

With most companies now having posted quarterly earnings, we are beginning to see the impact of missing not just estimates, but beating those estimates by a wide margin. Let’s go over some companies that are near and dear to our hearts.
DKNG/PENN – These are rough times for gambling stocks. This week, both these companies continue to lose money in their core gaming businesses. PENN ended it’s affiliation with ESPN, for which it paid the Disney sports network $150M per year. That move alone prompted a few analysts to upgrade the stock. DKNG frustratingly announced losses that were larger than expected. At the same time, they have purchased Railbird, a prediction platform that will allow users to “bet” on a variety of outcomes in finance, entertainment, and even politics. Directly after the announcement DKNG touched a 52 week low before rebounding to just over $30. We have been holding DKNG for over 5 years now. Happily, we reduced our position by half after the last earnings report at $52.91. We really felt like they would be operating profitably on an ongoing basis. But companies like Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket have been operating in all fifty states with no license required because they are the aforementioned prediction markets. It’s more like buying a contract that can be bought and sold prior to the eventual outcome of an event. While Jason Robins, CEO of Draftkings says they are not losing to these markets, he also did get his company into the game. Other headwinds include higher tax obligations in certain states, and uneven outcomes where the customer may win more than the house. With all of this in mind, we are going to look to sell our positions in both DKNG and PENN. We do believe there is a future here, and that consolidation will need to take place. But in the meantime, we feel like there are better places to invest with better potential.
PTON – Peloton was a recent addition to our portfolio. We began a position on Oct. 14 and added to it on Nov. 4. We hold 400 shares at an average of $7.20. The company had announced an increase in their monthly subscription fees, as well as a new line of equipment for gyms, hotels, and other public spaces. We felt like this would lead to better results. And this past Thursday we were proved correct. Earnings beat estimates, and the comapny raised guidance for the current quarter. But nothing can ever just go 100% smooth. They also announced a huge recall of all 833,000 Bike+ units that Peloton has ever sold. Three people reported a broken seat, with two of them being injured when falling off the bike. That issue tempered gains from the positive earnings. Still the stock ended the week at $7.66. We believe this can reach $10 in the coming weeks.
SNAP – The parent company of Snapchat posted results that beat estimates. Higher revenue, more users, and a reduced loss were all positives. The biggest part of the announcement though, had nothing to do with results. Perplexity AI will integrate its AI search engine directly into the Snapchat app. They will pay SNAP $400 million beginning in 2026. I still believe we will see $10+ out of SNAP in the coming weeks. Our cost here is $8.15 and the stock closed at $8.21 on Friday.

Stocks we are Watching

META – The Facebook and Instagram parent posted excellent results a couple of weeks ago, but the stock continues to get punished because of their spending plans related to AI. The market is wondering how all of this will get monetized. From October 29th through Friday, META has fallen from $751 to $621 or 17%. We are viewing this as an opportunity to begin a position in META. We will likely buy 2 or three shares to begin.
PLTR – Avid readers will remember my Palantir “mistake”. While we made a quick profit, we all know what those 55 shares would be worth today. It’s important in any aspect of life to move on and forget. Palantir this past week reported amazing sales and profit results. However, with the stock prices so high, the market sold it off as expectations were unrealistic. On November 3rd, PLTR was trading at $207. It closed Friday at $177, and we are watching this for a potential entry point. Palantir provides AI solutions to governments, security organizations, and the military. Revenue and profits are growing at over 100%, and we really like the leadership of Alex Karp.

Credit Cards

We have looked briefly at the credit card game. In our next letter we are going to do a deep dive into minimum payments, points, premium cards and fees, interest rates, and how many cards should we hold. Please reply or comment with any credit card issues or questions you may have. We will tackle any and all queries.

Thought of the Day

Don’t let yesterday use up too much of today.
Every now and then I find myself thinking about mistakes I’ve made, or what could have been had I done something differently. This is normal, and I’m sure we all do it. However, if we let it take over the current day, thinking about the past can become paralyzing. I know that I sometimes look at career choices, investment opportunities, and personal choices in love and life that have led me to where I am. I think about where I would be if different choices were made. Robert Frost wrote: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. Do we take the road less traveled by? What did Frost mean by this? Do we just take the safe route? What are some risks you think about? What are some regrets? Do you spend too much time thinking about yesterdays? Let us know in the comments.